{"id":41588,"date":"2016-08-04T11:51:39","date_gmt":"2016-08-04T10:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=41588"},"modified":"2016-08-07T22:50:54","modified_gmt":"2016-08-07T21:50:54","slug":"the-globalization-disconnect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=41588","title":{"rendered":"STEPHEN ROACH: THE GLOBALIZATION DISCONNECT"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/_\/scs\/apps-static\/_\/js\/k=oz.gapi.it.3KR4LQ4FpSs.O\/m=auth\/exm=plusone\/rt=j\/sv=1\/d=1\/ed=1\/am=EQ\/rs=AGLTcCMl-mNNblNqXe37GZ2LRL-6aH9HHw\/cb=gapi.loaded_1\" type=\"mce-no\/type\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/_\/scs\/apps-static\/_\/js\/k=oz.gapi.it.3KR4LQ4FpSs.O\/m=plusone\/rt=j\/sv=1\/d=1\/ed=1\/am=EQ\/rs=AGLTcCMl-mNNblNqXe37GZ2LRL-6aH9HHw\/cb=gapi.loaded_0\" type=\"mce-no\/type\"><\/script><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">LA GLOBALIZZAZIONE SOFFRE DI UNA CRISI DI POPOLARIT\u00c0: SPETTA A QUELLI DI NOI CHE VOGLIONO UN MONDO LIBERO DA BARRIERE INDICARE COME SI POSSONO NEUTRALIZZARE I DANNI CHE POSSONO DERIVARNE A UNA MINORANZA, PER IMPEDIRE CHE PREVALGA NELL&#8217;OPINIONE PUBBLICA MAGGIORITARIA L&#8217;ANSIA PER QUEI POSSIBILI DANNI<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Articolo<strong> di Stephen S. Roach<\/strong> (gi\u00e0<\/em> <em>Chairman\u00a0 e capo-economista di Morgan Stanley Asia, oggi senior fellow del Yale University&#8217;s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs e docente alla Yale&#8217;s School of Management; \u00e8 autore di\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/yalebooks.com\/book\/9780300187175\/unbalanced\" target=\"_blank\">Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China<\/a><em>) pubblicato il 2 agosto 2016 sul sito <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=41482\" target=\"_blank\">Project Syndicate<\/a> &#8211; <em>In argomento v. anche l&#8217;articolo di\u00a0<strong>di Franco Bruni<\/strong>, professore di economia all&#8217;Universit\u00e0 Bocconi, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=41682\" target=\"_blank\">Come i fautori dei muri possono essere battuti<\/a><em>, e il mio editoriale telegrafico, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=41590\" target=\"_blank\">L&#8217;argomento imbattibile in difesa della globalizzazione<\/a> <!--more--><\/p>\n<p><!--<![endif]--><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">.<\/span><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/fwat.js?v=2016-8-2&amp;s=1\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/sjs.bizographics.com\/insight.min.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/mc.yandex.ru\/metrika\/watch.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/secure.quantserve.com\/quant.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/d31qbv1cthcecs.cloudfront.net\/atrk.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/fbevents.js\"><\/script><script src=\"\/\/ajax.googleapis.com\/ajax\/libs\/jquery\/1.11.1\/jquery.min.js\"><\/script><script src=\"\/default\/js\/ps.min.js?v=636052218940000000\"><\/script><script src=\"https:\/\/data.flw.li\/piwik\/piwik.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"\/\/cdn.optimizely.com\/js\/3770941842.js\"><\/script><!-- Facebook Pixel Code --><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n!function (f, b, e, v, n, t, s) { if (f.fbq) return; n = f.fbq = function () { n.callMethod ? 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Roach<\/p><\/div>\n<p data-line-id=\"6ac8c35856db4f399d78af7f0444e7f5\">NEW HAVEN \u2013 While seemingly elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. And it also underpins the increasingly virulent anti-China backlash now sweeping the world. Those who worship at the altar of free trade \u2013 including me \u2013 must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"032a830f77054b5dbb3daae8f0adac35\">Truth be known, there is no rigorous theory of globalization. The best that economists can offer is David Ricardo\u2019s early nineteenth-century framework: if a country simply produces in accordance with its comparative advantage (in terms of resource endowments and workers\u2019 skills), presto, it will gain through increased cross-border trade. Trade liberalization \u2013 the elixir of globalization \u2013 promises benefits for all.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"onpoint highlighted highlighted-standard highlighted-container-embedded\">Overcoming the Poisonous Politics of Protectionism<\/h3>\n<p class=\"onpoint highlighted highlighted-standard highlighted-container-embedded\">That promise arguably holds in the long run, but a far tougher reality check invariably occurs in the short run. Brexit \u2013 the United Kingdom\u2019s withdrawal from the European Union \u2013 is just the latest case in point.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"3ffe91ba0b024d7e93c1d4aa9ec8a3ea\">Voters in the UK objected to several of the key premises of regional integration: free labor mobility and seemingly open-ended immigration, regulation by supranational authorities in Brussels, and currency union (which has serious flaws, such as the lack of a fiscal transfer mechanism among member states). Economic integration and globalization are not exactly the same thing, but they rest on the same Ricardian principles of trade liberalization \u2013 principles that are falling on deaf ears in the political arena.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"ea3aef84ce7b46df9b3884761c5a60c4\">In the US, Trump\u2019s ascendancy and the political traction gained by Senator Bernie Sanders\u2019s primary campaign reflect many of the same sentiments that led to Brexit. From immigration to trade liberalization, economic pressures on a beleaguered middle class contradict the core promises of globalization.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"2792bdb4799a47c4af1bb2e80419b0bb\">As is often the case \u2013 and particularly in a presidential election year \u2013 America\u2019s politicians resort to the blame game in confronting these tough issues. Trump has singled out China and Mexico, and Sanders\u2019s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership \u2013 the proposed trade deal between the US and 11 Pacific Rim countries \u2013 has pushed Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party\u2019s nominee, to adopt a similar stance.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"21308e23796645a8917a958f23975ec7\">In short, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/globalization-political-fault-lines-by-nouriel-roubini-2016-07\">globalization has lost its political support<\/a> \u2013 unsurprising in a world that bears little resemblance to the one inhabited by Ricardo two centuries ago. Ricardo\u2019s arguments, couched in terms of England\u2019s and Portugal\u2019s comparative advantages in cloth and wine, respectively, hardly seem relevant for today\u2019s hyper-connected, knowledge-based world. The Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson, who led the way in translating Ricardian foundations into modern economics, reached a similar conclusion late in his life, when he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uni-saarland.de\/fak1\/fr12\/csle\/material\/SamuelsonJEP2004.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">pointed out<\/a> how a disruptive low-wage technology imitator like China could turn the theory of comparative advantage inside out.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"e732998a3b004579870f78493164a930\">Nor is it just a problem with an antiquated theory. Recent trends in global trade are also flashing warning signs. According to the International Monetary Fund, annual <a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/weo\/2016\/01\/\" target=\"_blank\">growth in the volume of world trade<\/a> has averaged just 3% over the 2009-2016 period \u2013 half the 6% rate from 1980 to 2008. This reflects not only the Great Recession, but also an unusually anemic recovery. With world trade shifting to a decidedly lower trajectory, political resistance to globalization has only intensified.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"61d454fb62e74887ad6b5cf6fa8e28db\">Of course, this isn\u2019t the first time that globalization has run into trouble. Globalization 1.0 \u2013 the surge in global trade and international capital flows that occurred in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries \u2013 met its demise between World War I and the Great Depression. Global trade fell by some 60% from 1929 to 1932, as major economies turned inward and embraced protectionist trade policies, such as America\u2019s infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"7d79675ac5af4c8baf5e3512c2b4bbca\">But the stakes may be greater if today\u2019s more powerful globalization were to meet a similar fate. In contrast to Globalization 1.0, which was largely confined to the cross-border exchange of tangible (manufactured) goods, the <i>scope<\/i> of Globalization 2.0 is far broader, including growing trade in many so-called intangibles \u2013 once nontradable services.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"56012ff254e0404a86cff12f9332e7a9\">Similarly, the <i>means<\/i> of Globalization 2.0 are far more sophisticated than those of its antecedent. The connectivity of Globalization 1.0 occurred via ships and eventually railroads and motor vehicles. Today, these transportation systems are far more advanced \u2013 augmented by the Internet and its enhancement of global supply chains. The Internet has also enabled instantaneous cross-border dissemination of knowledge-based services such as software programming, engineering and design, medical screening, and accounting, legal, and consulting work.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"8d7e77f8c2104503855bfeda8c8316b3\">The sharpest contrast between the two waves of globalization is in the <i>speed<\/i> of technology absorption and disruption. New information technologies have been adopted at an unusually rapid rate. It took only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Morgan-Stanley-Inteernet-Report-Meeker\/dp\/0887308260\" target=\"_blank\">five years<\/a> for 50 million US households to begin surfing the Internet, whereas it took 38 years for a similar number to gain access to radios.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"98345e022bcf4bffb76498c9a53b7412\">Sadly, the economics profession has failed to grasp the inherent problems with globalization. In fixating on an antiquated theory, they have all but ignored the here and now of a mounting worker backlash. Yet the breadth and speed of Globalization 2.0 demand new approaches to cushion the blows of this disruption.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"c2241744dd0b4fc388dd912195e637c3\">Unfortunately, safety-net programs to help trade-displaced or trade-pressured workers are just as obsolete as theories of comparative advantage. America\u2019s Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, for example, was enacted in 1962 for the manufacturing-based economy of yesteryear. According to a <a href=\"https:\/\/piie.com\/blogs\/trade-investment-policy-watch\/fate-trade-adjustment-assistance-basics\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> published by the Peterson Institute, only two million US workers have benefited from TAA since 1974.<\/p>\n<div class=\"row default mt-0 \">\n<div class=\"small-12 medium-12 large-8 columns business-finance\">\n<article id=\"5795ff412bd5d22924584a98\" class=\"commentary article english\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<p data-line-id=\"748e3ec2a75749deafb37d532687c48f\">As history cautions, the alternative \u2013 whether it is Brexit or America\u2019s new isolationism \u2013 is an accident waiting to happen. It is up to those of us who defend free trade and globalization to prevent that, by offering concrete solutions that address the very real problems that now afflict so many workers.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"748e3ec2a75749deafb37d532687c48f\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"748e3ec2a75749deafb37d532687c48f\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LA GLOBALIZZAZIONE SOFFRE DI UNA CRISI DI POPOLARIT\u00c0: SPETTA A QUELLI DI NOI CHE VOGLIONO UN MONDO LIBERO DA BARRIERE INDICARE COME SI POSSONO NEUTRALIZZARE I DANNI CHE POSSONO DERIVARNE A UNA MINORANZA, PER IMPEDIRE CHE PREVALGA NELL&#8217;OPINIONE PUBBLICA MAGGIORITARIA L&#8217;ANSIA PER QUEI POSSIBILI DANNI Articolo di Stephen S. Roach (gi\u00e0 Chairman\u00a0 e capo-economista di [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-immigrazione","category-24-politica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41588"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41588\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}