{"id":43148,"date":"2016-12-17T17:51:46","date_gmt":"2016-12-17T16:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=43148"},"modified":"2016-12-17T17:58:09","modified_gmt":"2016-12-17T16:58:09","slug":"where-were-trumps-votes-where-the-jobs-werent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/?p=43148","title":{"rendered":"WHERE WERE TRUMP\u2019S VOTES? WHERE THE JOBS WEREN\u2019T"},"content":{"rendered":"

UN PUNTO DI VISTA INTERESSANTE SULLE CAUSE DELLA VITTORIA DI TRUMP: “GLI ELETTORI BIANCHI MENO ISTRUITI AVEVANO UN FORTE MOTIVO ECONOMICO PER VOTARE CONTRO LO STATUS QUO<\/em>: QUASI TUTTI I GUADAGNI DALLA RIPRESA ECONOMICA \u00c8 PASSATA SOPRA DI LORO SENZA TOCCARLI; NE HANNO BENEFICIATO DI PI\u00d9 GLI ISPANICI, I NERI E GLI ASIATICI”
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Articolo di Eduardo Porter pubblicato sul<\/em> New York Times il 13 dicembre 2016 – In argomento v. anche l’articolo di Franco Bruni <\/em>Come si combatte il voto di mera protesta fine a se stessa<\/a>
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\"NYT\"Did the white working class vote its economic interests?<\/p>\n

The day after the presidential election \u2014 in a long and brooding interview with Rolling Stone<\/em> magazine \u2014 President Obama offered his take on why blue-collar whites flocked so decidedly to Donald J. Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not simply an economic issue,\u201d Mr. Obama concluded. \u201cThis is a cultural issue. And a communications issue.\u201d From family leave and overtime rules to Obamacare, he noted, his administration offered a steady stream of policies to help working-class communities. But \u201cwhatever policy prescriptions that we\u2019ve been proposing don\u2019t reach, are not heard, by the folks in these communities.\u201d<\/p>\n

This view fits a common narrative among liberal analysts of American politics, most prominently conveyed in What\u2019s the Matter With Kansas<\/em>, the 2004 bestselling book by Thomas Frank: Republicans use cultural issues like abortion, guns and gay marriage to gain the votes of struggling workers who nonetheless stand to lose the most from the Republicans\u2019 small-government agenda.<\/p>\n

But it largely misses the mark. Yes, the economy has added millions of jobs since President Obama took office. Even manufacturing employment has recovered some of its losses. Still, less-educated white voters had a solid economic rationale for voting against the status quo \u2014 nearly all the gains from the economic recovery have passed them by.<\/p>\n

There are almost nine million more jobs than there were at the previous peak in November 2007, just before the economy tumbled into recession. But the gains have not been evenly distributed.<\/p>\n

Despite accounting for less than 15 percent of the labor force, Hispanics got more than half of the net additional jobs. Blacks and Asians also gained millions more jobs than they lost. But whites, who account for 78 percent of the labor force, lost more than 700,000 net jobs over the nine years.<\/p>\n

The racial and ethnic divide is starker among workers in their prime. Whites ages 25 to 54 lost some 6.5 million jobs more than they gained over the period.<\/p>\n

Hispanics in their prime, by contrast, gained some three million jobs net, Asians 1.5 million and blacks one million.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn every age group,\u201d wrote Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in a penetrating analysis, \u201cblacks, Hispanics and Asians have more jobs now than they did at the November 2007 high-water mark.\u201d<\/p>\n

This lopsided racial sorting of jobs is only one of the fault lines brought to the fore by the presidential election.<\/p>\n

Only 472 counties voted for Hillary Clinton on Election Day. But according to Mark Muro of the Brookings Institution, they account for 64 percent of the nation\u2019s economic activity. The 2,584 counties where Mr. Trump won, by contrast, generated only 36 percent of America\u2019s prosperity.<\/p>\n

\"nyt-trump-701x394\"The political divide between high-output and low-output parts of the country also meshes with the cleavage between urban America \u2014 largely won by Mrs. Clinton \u2014 and the vast, less-populous rural stretches where Mr. Trump racked up large numbers of votes.<\/p>\n

Non-Hispanic whites account for 62 percent of the population. But they make up some 78 percent of the population of nonmetropolitan areas and 71 percent of that of small cities, according to the demographer William H. Frey from Brookings.<\/p>\n

By contrast, they account for only 56 percent of the population of the 100 largest urban areas in the country.<\/p>\n

Problem is, many of the jobs created since the economy started recovering from recession were in service industries, located primarily in large metropolitan areas \u2014 not in small towns and rural areas where the factories that once provided steady good jobs were either shuttered or were retooled to replace workers with machines.<\/p>\n

Even as the typical American household experienced the fastest income growth on record last year, median household income outside of metropolitan areas fell 2 percent, according to the Census Bureau. By last summer employment in nonmetropolitan areas was still 2 percent lower than in the first quarter of 2008.<\/p>\n

Metropolitan areas, by contrast, had 5 percent more jobs than they did eight years earlier. And that is where most Hispanics, blacks and Asians live. The lowend service jobs there certainly pay less than those that lifted white blue-collar workers into the middle class. But they do offer a more hopeful future than a shrinking employment base.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt has been a good decade for metropolitan America,\u201d said Mr. Muro, who heads the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. By contrast, \u201cyou can\u2019t underestimate the economic and social pain across the rural tier.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given such clear divisions \u2014 less-educated whites living in depressed rural areas, on one side, and minorities living in more vigorous big-city economies on the other \u2014 the social and racial animosity manifest during the election campaign is hardly a surprise.<\/p>\n

So there is a clear economic argument for Mr. Trump\u2019s angry voters to have bucked the establishment.<\/p>\n

But all that raises a bigger question. Will President Trump deliver on the promises \u2014 the new, well-paying jobs \u2014 that his supporters demand? Mr. Achuthan, for one, thinks not.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump will get smacked in about a year or so,\u201d he told me. \u201cRegardless of his policies.\u201d<\/p>\n

The story extends back to the turn of the century \u2014 when China was allowed into the World Trade Organization, setting off a wave of investment by multinational corporations hoping to take advantage of cheap Chinese labor.<\/p>\n

Goods-producing jobs in manufacturing and construction, which had been roughly flat since 1979, plummeted by more than three million before a building boom fueled by an inflating housing bubble clawed back many of them. When that bubble burst, the construction jobs evaporated too. And there has been no new jobproducing boom to take its place.<\/p>\n

Can Mr. Trump do more for his supporters than previous presidents? It\u2019s doubtful. Most of his promises are empty. No matter what he does, he cannot bring back the coal jobs of yore or the old labor-intensive manufacturing economy. Some of his proposals \u2014 walling off the country with protective tariffs, for example \u2014 would make things worse for the middle and working class, while tax cuts for the wealthy will exacerbate inequality rather than lessen it.<\/p>\n

The job market has tightened and there are a number of underlying forces that may well propel the economy forward for a while in a way that prosperity spreads more outside the major cities. A major program of public investment in infrastructure would probably increase employment, but it is not a long-term solution for a rural population cut off from the most dynamic sectors of the economy.<\/p>\n

What progress the nation has in store is likely to come through investments in technology and human capital. This will happen mostly in its cities. Less-educated rural whites, with deep roots in their local communities, are often reluctant to move. But that means all too many are likely to be left behind.<\/p>\n

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UN PUNTO DI VISTA INTERESSANTE SULLE CAUSE DELLA VITTORIA DI TRUMP: “GLI ELETTORI BIANCHI MENO ISTRUITI AVEVANO UN FORTE MOTIVO ECONOMICO PER VOTARE CONTRO LO STATUS QUO: QUASI TUTTI I GUADAGNI DALLA RIPRESA ECONOMICA \u00c8 PASSATA SOPRA DI LORO SENZA TOCCARLI; NE HANNO BENEFICIATO DI PI\u00d9 GLI ISPANICI, I NERI E GLI ASIATICI” Articolo di […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-24-politica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43148\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pietroichino.it\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}